2022 World Cup Preview: Group A Analysis
The Netherlands
Embed from Getty ImagesThe last 12 years have been a rollercoaster for Dutch football. In 2010, the Oranje lost a heartbreaking World Cup Final against Spain. They were close to the pinnacle in 2014 as well, losing the semi-final to Argentina on penalties. The semi-final exit began a dreadful six-year period in which they failed to qualify for both Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup, retired a golden generation of Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, and Wesley Sneijder, and mourned the death of the single most influential figure in Dutch football (and maybe world football) history in Johan Cruyff.
The Eredivisie, the top flight of Dutch football, was also in the downswing during this time. That was until Erik ten Hag arrived at FC Utrecht after a three-year stint at Bayern Munich II under the guidance of Pep Guardiola. From Utrecht, Ten Hag took his philosophies to Ajax, where he was the architect of the most successful Ajax side in over twenty years. For more about the state of the Eredivisie back then, and Ten Hag’s impact upon arrival, check out this video from the excellent team at Tifo IRL.
It was the success of Ten Hag’s Ajax side, most notably in its Champions League semi-final run in 2018-19, that put Dutch football back on the upswing.
This current iteration of Oranje combines an exciting young generation of Dutch footballers with one of the most influential figures in Dutch football history. That’s right, Louis Van Gaal returns for his third stint as manager of the national team, this time with a reloaded cupboard of Dutch talent at his disposal.
Van Gaal succeeded Frank de Boer as manager in August, 2021, following a disappointing Round of 16 exit at EURO 2020. He oversaw the final seven matches of World Cup Qualifiers, winning five and drawing two matches. In qualifying, Van Gaal deployed his trusted 4-3-3 system, which he rarely ever deviated from in his club career. In the six matches since qualifiers, however, Van Gaal experimented with various forms of a back three.
A back three makes sense, as defense is by far their strongest position group. Virgil van Dijk is comfortably one of the best, if not the best, center back in the world right now. He’ll be excited to compete in his first senior level international tournament, and will surely have a point to prove. Matthijs de Ligt, the former Ajax product, should be a key figure alongside Van Dijk in the back three. One of the versatile Nathan Aké, the experienced Stefan de Vrij, or the raw and talented Jurrien Timber, will join them to complete the back three.
Deploying a back three requires width and balance throughout the side. Technically, Van Gaal plays with a midfield four. In actuality, it’s more of a midfield two with two wing backs on the flank. Van Gaal seems to trust Denzel Dumfries and Daley Blind for these roles. Dumfries posted excellent attacking numbers at Inter last season, and he provides a ton of width and pace down the right flank. Blind is a pleasant contrast to Dumfries. He’s not as involved in the attack, but his build-up play and experience as an auxiliary center back make him the prime candidate for this role.
The midfield two is an area where Van Gaal can’t afford to get wrong. Frenkie de Jong picks himself in this side. An excellent passer and dribbler of the ball, the Barcelona midfielder epitomizes the Cruyffian philosophies much of Dutch football is based upon. De Jong is the engine of this Dutch team, and they’ll rely on him to break the press, advance possession forward, and create chances for the front three.
He’ll need the right partner though, and picking that partner depends a lot on how Van Gaal wants his midfield to function. If he sees one of his back three pushing into the midfield, perhaps De Jong’s partner could be a more creative option in Gini Wijnaldum, Teun Koopmeiners, or Davy Klaassen. If he fancies a ball-winning midfielder, Jerdy Schouten and Marten de Roon best fit that profile. My pick for this role would be Koopmeiners, who can operate as a free No 8 opposite of De Jong, while one of the back three can tuck into the defensive midfield role when needed.
The front three has plenty of options, but Van Gaal’s favorites are quite clear so far. Memphis Depay has played more minutes than anyone else during Van Gaal’s tenure, and will surely lead the line in Qatar. Steven Bergwijn has primarily played as his strike partner, with Steven Berghuis sitting behind them in the No 10 role. But watch out for Donyell Malen, Cody Gakpo, and Noa Lang to push for starting roles in the three months of club play before November.
Feyenoord’s Justin Bijlow should start in goal for Van Gaal. He’s relatively inexperienced, but is still a much needed upgrade on an otherwise mediocre position group (with Tim Krul and Jasper Cillessen).
There’s plenty of optimism surrounding this Dutch side. They have a healthy blend of experience and youth, a group of players eager to shine on the international stage, and a proven Dutch footballing icon at the helm. Expect them to progress comfortably from group A and push for the later stages of the tournament.
Senegal
Embed from Getty ImagesTwenty years removed from their improbable quarter-final run in 2002, the Lions of Teranga hope for a similar run in Qatar.
Current manager and captain of that 2002 World Cup squad, Aliou Cissé, has done a tremendous job since assuming the managerial role in 2015. Under his guidance, Senegal qualified for back-to-back FIFA World Cups, finished runners-up in the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations, and won the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year.
The World Cup is a different beast though, and the Senegalese know that through experience. They exited earlier than expected in 2018, finishing third in the group via a fair play tiebreaker with Japan. Fortunately, the current squad is much more experienced than it was four years ago, and its ceiling is higher too.
New Bayern Munich signing Sadio Mané is the heart and soul of Senegalese football. Not only is Mané one of the best footballers in the world, period, he’s already one of the most accomplished African footballers of all time. His talent alone makes him a national hero, but his philanthropy and dedication to his home country is just as impressive. He’s an excellent role model for young Senegalese footballers.
◉ First Senegalese player to win the Premier League
— Squawka (@Squawka) June 4, 2022
◉ First Senegalese player to win the Champions League
◉ First Senegalese player to win AFCON Player of the Tournament
Sadio Mané has now scored more goals for Senegal (32) than any other player in the nation's history. 🇸🇳 pic.twitter.com/mzJ52YogGx
Mané is a natural winger, but he played as a more traditional No 9 for both club and country at various points throughout the last year. He’s a guaranteed starter in Cissé’s favored 4-3-3. Watford winger Ismaïla Sarr usually starts on the opposite wing. Sarr has all the talent in the world, but his development has stalled since joining the Hornets in 2019. Villareal’s Boulaye Dia and Alanyaspor’s Famara Diedhiou will compete for the last spot in the front three, depending on how Cissé opts to use Mané.
The midfield selection is rather straightforward. Cheikhou Kouyaté, Nampalys Mendy, and Idrissa Gana Gueye played almost every minute at AFCON 2021, and I expect little change between now and November. The trio was great at AFCON, but I have concerns about its lack of creativity in possession. Kouyaté is an exceptional ball-winner, but offers very little in possession. I can say the same for Mendy, who has struggled for minutes at Leicester City the last few years. Gana Gueye is the likeliest source of creativity from the midfield. He’s more of a box-to-box midfielder than Kouyaté and Mendy, and his experience in the possession-dominant PSG side is certainly a big part of that. He must make up for the creativity the rest of the group lacks.
Kalidou Koulibaly is the guy in the Senegalese defense. One of the best Serie A center backs of the last decade, Koulibaly may just be Senegal’s most important player in Qatar. Joining him in the central defense will most likely be PSG’s Abdou Diallo. He’s not as physically dominant as Koulibaly, but he’s great in possession and has respectable defensive numbers. Saliou Ciss and Bouna Sarr are likely starters from an underwhelming full back group. I worry about the lack of options here, especially if Senegal faces a team that stretches them out wide (like the Netherlands).
In goal, Edouard Mendy is a great option to have. He has Champions League winning experience with Chelsea, and he may just be the best shot-stopper in group A.
Can Senegal carry its momentum from AFCON into Qatar? I expect them to. They have high-caliber stars in Mané and Koulibaly, with good enough depth surrounding them, and a manager that’s been around the block. Advancing to the knockout stage is easily attainable, especially from one of the weaker groups.
Ecuador
Embed from Getty ImagesThere’s nothing more dangerous in a World Cup than a team with nothing to play for, and that’s exactly what Ecuador is.
La Tri narrowly survived the treacherous CONMEBOL qualification process, edging out Peru by just two points to secure automatic qualification. Manager Gustavo Alfaro found the recipe for grinding out results and getting his squad to play better than the sum of its parts would suggest. He’ll have to carry that same mentality to Qatar, where his squad is comfortably the third-best in group A.
Tactically, Alfaro is not afraid of experimenting. He deployed seven different formations during qualification, with a 4-2-3-1 being the most frequent setup. Alfaro is practical, understanding that an organized low-block is the best way to beat bigger sides. Yet he also values the ball and encourages his team to show courage in possession. I expect more of the former in Qatar, but it’s a great mentality to have nonetheless.
Alfaro has also done a fantastic job integrating young talent into the starting XI. First it was 20-year-old midfielder Moisés Caicedo, who made 15 starts and led the team in assists during qualification. Caicedo made eight Premier League starts for Brighton during the back-half of the 2021-22 season, posting some impressive underlying numbers while doing so. He's poised for a massive tournament as the creative heartbeat of La Tri.
Bayer Leverkusen defender Piero Hincapié also burst onto the scene this year with an impressive debut season in the Bundesliga. He makes a ton of defensive contributions, is a more than capable passer, and can play as a full back if needed. He has already solidified his place as the first-choice center back for Alfaro, and I don't foresee much change between now and November in that regard.
Here's how Hincapié compares to other center backs in Europes top five leagues.
21-year-old Gonzalo Plata is another promising player poised for a big World Cup. The Real Valladolid winger recorded 6 goals and 5 assists in 23 Segunda División starts last season. He also scored three goals and assisted one in 7 qualification starts. Consistent minutes still elude Plata, but I expect that to change in the next six months.
Joining this budding generation of Ecuadorian talent is a trio of veterans from the 2014 World Cup team. Onetime Premier League striker Enner Valencia scored all three goals for La Tri in 2014. He’ll feature in Qatar, even if it’s in a backup role behind Michael Estrada (the two split starts in qualifying).
Augsburg midfielder Carlos Gruezo played twice in 2014, and has since become a mainstay in the midfield. He’ll feature prominently as a No 6, providing cover for the back four and winning back possession in the center of the park.
35-year-old goalkeeper Alexander Domínguez started in 2014, and he’ll likely start again in Qatar. His experience sets him apart from otherwise mediocre options at Alfaro’s disposal.
There’s much more quality to this Ecuador side than meets the eye. Most will see Ecuador and immediately pencil them in for a third place finish, but I wouldn’t be so quick to discredit La Tri. They have nothing to lose and everything to prove, a dangerous combo in the World Cup group stage.
Qatar
Qatar qualified for the World Cup simply because its government officials bribed FIFA more than other countries’ officials. For the uniformed, this article briefly discusses the various concerns with Qatar hosting an event of such magnitude.
Politics aside, I expect absolutely nothing from the Qataris this November They’re currently 49th in the global FIFA rankings, which ranks below other World Cup minnows Iran, Tunisia, and Costa Rica. They also have the joint-third worst odds to win the tournament at +21000 (via FanDuel).
Manager Félix Sánchez has a relatively minuscule talent pool at his disposal. Almost all of his squad plays club football in the Qatar Stars League, a massive step down from the top European leagues other nations are sourcing their talent from.
Hassan Al-Haydos, Almoez Ali, and Akram Afif are some of the most accomplished Qatari footballers ever, but rarely play against the level of competition they’ll see in the World Cup. Perhaps that makes them wildcards, but the Qatar Stars League is a clear step down from even the biggest South American leagues.
I can understand someone making a case for Ecuador to make it out of group
A, but I can’t say the same for Qatar. There’s just not enough proven
top-level talent to suggest anything other than a swift exit. Perhaps this
is vastly underrating the defending Asian Cup champions, but I’ll take my
chances in saying their World Cup will be short-lived.
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