Austria: Euro 2024's Dark Horse
In late November, UEFA unveiled the group stage draw for the 17th edition of the European Championship, scheduled for the upcoming summer in Germany. Here are the groups:
Now, you might be skeptical. How could Austria, a team with just 2 wins from 10 matches in previous European Championships, be considered a dark horse in Germany?
Stranger things have happened in football history, such as Denmark winning the Euro 1992 tournament without even qualifying, or Greece claiming victory in Euro 2004 despite daunting +15000 odds (Austria currently sits at +6500 on Fanduel). In this century alone, Turkey, Russia, Wales, and Czechia have all secured semi-final appearances. Who's to say the Austrians can't be the surprise package this summer?
Austria has undergone a significant transformation since the appointment of German-born manager Ralf Rangnick in June 2022. Rangnick inherited a side from Franco Foda that failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, playing a lackluster brand of counter-attacking football that ultimately lost favor with the Austrian public.
To comprehend what Rangnick brings to the table, we must delve into his CV. Rangnick spent the first 30 years of his career managing across the German football landscape, achieving varying levels of success with Stuttgart, Hannover, Schalke, and Hoffenheim.
He is credited as one of the main pioneers of gegenpressing, the counter-pressing philosophy dominating modern German football. His influence extends to top coaches like Jurgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel, Julian Nagelsmann, Ralph Hasenhüttl, and more.
In 2012, Rangnick assumed a new role with Red Bull as director of football, playing a pivotal role in overseeing Red Bull's expansion into European football. Over the next eight years, he directed both RB Leipzig and RB Salzburg to massive success. Leipzig ascended from the fourth tier of German football to multiple Bundesliga runner-up finishes and a Champions League semi-final berth. Simultaneously, Salzburg secured seven out of eight Austrian Bundesliga titles under his guidance.
His wealth of experience and understanding of both German and Austrian football made him a natural fit for the national team. During his tenure as Red Bull's director of football, he either recruited or managed several members of the Austrian national team. Key players like Xaver Schlager, Konrad Laimer, Marcel Sabitzer, and Nicolas Seiwald are all products of the Red Bull development system that Rangnick architectured.
So, not only does Rangnick possess an extensive background with some of his best players, but those players also comprehend his philosophy and how he envisions his teams to play. This synergy provides a significant advantage in the world of international football, and could be a driving factor of their success.
Now, let's delve into the projected Austria squad for Euro 2024:
The standout feature of this team lies in its versatile midfield, anchored by the RB Leipzig pairing of Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald. Since departing RB Salzburg in 2019, Schlager has evolved into one of the Bundesliga's premier holding midfielders, currently ranking 3rd in progressive passes and 5th in tackles won.
Seiwald, Schlager's teammate for both club and country, made a noteworthy move from Salzburg to Leipzig last summer. Despite limited playing time at Leipzig (just 147 Bundesliga minutes this year), he stood out as the sole Austrian to start and feature in all 8 qualifying games, becoming a linchpin in Rangnick’s tactical blueprint.
On the right side of midfield, we find the adaptable Konrad Laimer, navigating his role as a rotational option at Bayern Munich this season. Laimer, a natural holding midfielder, seamlessly transitions into a fullback or wide midfielder, a role he fulfilled under Rangnick throughout the qualification phase.
Schlager, Seiwald, and Laimer form an impressive midfield trio—physically imposing, well-rounded, and well-versed in Rangnick's preferred style of play. The bench offers reliable options in Florian Grillitsch, Dejan Ljubicic, and Romano Schmid, all regular contributors for Bundesliga teams.
Moving to the creative front, Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner assume center stage. Sabitzer, while not at the pinnacle of his form since departing RB Leipzig two and a half years ago, has experienced a resurgence under Rangnick's guidance for Austria. Leading the team in goal contributions during qualification with 3 goals and 3 assists in just 3 starts, he remains a crucial creative force.
Baumgartner, who has kicked off his journey with Leipzig after a summer transfer, served as the linchpin of Rangnick’s attack in the qualification stage. With three goals and two assists in six qualifier starts, the 24-year-old has swiftly established himself as a key contributor, presenting a significant opportunity to make a lasting impression at Euro 2024.
Up top, completing the attack, is SC Freiburg’s Michael Gregoritsch, emerging as one of the Bundesliga’s most active strikers. He currently averages more shots per 90 than notable names such as Harry Kane, Loïs Openda, Serhou Guirassy, and Victor Boniface.
Notably, both Gregoritsch and Baumgartner rank in the top ten percent of Bundesliga players for attacking contributions (open play chances created + non-penalty shots per 90) as of the end of 2023.
On the bench, Patrick Wimmer and Florian Kainz offer serviceable wing options, while Marko Arnautović, Sasa Kalajdzic, and Junior Adamu stand ready to feature in the front line if needed.
The squad's main uncertainties lie in defense, particularly with the expected absence of captain David Alaba, who suffered an ACL injury playing for Real Madrid in early December—a substantial setback for Austria.
If healthy, Philipp Lienhart and Stefan Posch are expected to secure starting roles for the right-sided center-back and right-back positions. Lienhart, a pivotal player for Freiburg, aided the team to a fifth-place finish in the Bundesliga last year, while Posch has been excellent since joining Bologna in 2022.
The left side of defense, in Alaba's presumed absence, sees Kevin Danso as the likely replacement, with Phillip Mwene and Maximilian Wöber competing for the left-back spot.
In goal, a notable shift from previous management sees Rangnick turning to the Austrian Bundesliga for answers. Alexander Schlager holds the position as the current number one choice after starting 6 of 8 qualification matches. In a strong debut campaign with RB Salzburg, Schlager has exceeded expectations, stopping 3.7 goals above the anticipated level. His likely backup, Tobias Lawal, has demonstrated an even more impressive performance, halting 5.3 goals above expected.
Group D is undeniably a challenging draw for Austria, pitting them against the reigning World Cup runners-up, France, the historical powerhouse Netherlands, and the winner of Playoff A – a contest featuring strong contenders like Wales and Poland. While France stands as the expected frontrunner, the battle for second place promises intrigue.
The Netherlands, under Ronald Koeman's second stint, has shown vulnerabilities, losing both matches against France with a combined score of 6-1, despite a convincing 6-0 run against Gibraltar, Ireland, and Greece in qualifying. Austria, recognizing the cracks in the Dutch armor, aims to secure a higher group finish.
Considering the format where four third-place teams qualify for the Round of 16, Austria's chances hinge on securing at least one win. However, the prospect of advancing to the quarterfinal significantly improves with a first or second-place group finish.
Euro 2024 presents a remarkable opportunity for Austria to make history with a potential quarter final run. Armed with a talented squad, guided by the tactically astute Rangnick, and fueled by newfound momentum, Austria might just surprise. While I won't outright predict their success, don't be taken aback if this group manages to secure a quarterfinal appearance, or perhaps more.
For additional insights into Rangnick’s tenure and the team's outlook heading into Euro 2024, consider reading this article from The Athletic’s Seb Stafford-Bloor: Link.
As always, thanks for reading! Stay tuned for more Euro 2024 content.
Comments
Post a Comment