Midseason NHL Awards

Photo via NHL.com

We’ve reached the midway mark of the 2021-22 NHL season, an unusual one at that. In a normal, non-pandemic world, the league would gear up for a month-long Olympic hiatus right about now. Alas, COVID spoiled the party and ruined a special event for both players and fans. On the bright side, the NHL will return with a congested schedule after the All-Star break, making up for the 105 games that were postponed for COVID protocols this year. The All-Star break feels like as good a time as ever to look at some of the best performers this season, and who projects to take home the game’s most prestigious awards. 

All stats via EvolvingHockey unless noted otherwise.

Hart Trophy

1. Connor McDavid

2. Alex Ovechkin

3. Igor Shesterkin

4. Auston Matthews

5. Kirill Kaprizov

6. Jonathan Huberdeau

7. Mikko Rantanen

8. Johnny Gaudreau

9. Timo Meier

10. Leon Draisaitl

Now this depends on what you consider “Most Valuable Player” to be. Does it mean the player is most responsible for their team's success? Or does it mean best player in the league in any season? Taylor Hall’s win in 2018 would be an example of the former, when he dragged a mediocre Devils team to the playoffs almost single-handedly. Not the best player, but the player most responsible for their team’s success. An example of the latter would be Wayne Gretzky winning the award eight consecutive seasons, despite being on a juggernaut Oilers team that were division winners even without Gretzky. I try to be somewhere in the middle. 

If I did this in early December, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Draisaitl would be the runaway favorites. Since then, the Oilers went on a dreadful stretch in which they lost 13 of 15 games because of McDavid and Draisaitl not sustaining the superhuman production they began the season with. They’re still the best one-two punch in the league, and could well be the top two scorers come seasons end. I can’t imagine where Edmonton would be without them. For that reason, both make this list. 

Ovechkin, the ageless wonder, is on a relentless pursuit of the all-time goals record. He’s on pace to hit the 100-point mark for the first time since 2009-10, as a 36-year-old. Incredible. Regardless of if he sustains his current pace, he’ll get some narrative love from the voters, and rightfully so.

Auston Matthews continues cementing his place in the tier of players just below McDavid in overall talent. He’s pacing a career-high in goals and points, headlining the 5th best scoring offense, and posting the best defensive numbers of his career so far. He’s the best player on a Toronto team on pace for almost 120 points. Tough to exclude him from the top five right now.

I just cannot in good faith leave Igor Shersterkin off this shortlist. At even strength, the Rangers rank 25th in expected goals share, 28th in shot differential, and 23rd in goals for per 60. Without Shesterkin- who boasts 22.68 goals saved above expected and a 93.5% save percentage- the Rangers are a mediocre team. He fits the bill as the single player most valuable to his team’s success, and his Hart bid grows stronger each game.

Kirill Kaprizov gets the last spot in the top five. Minnesota gets overlooked by national audiences largely because it’s never been an exciting and fast-paced team, but Kaprizov has single-handedly changed that. He has revitalized the career of Mats Zuccarello, made Ryan Hartman a number one center, and turned around the Stanley Cup hopes of a desperate fanbase. He’s an easy lock for the player most integral to his team’s success.

Jonathan Huberdeau has launched himself into MVP contention after a red-hot January in which the Panthers went 13-2-0 and Huberdeau notched himself 25 points (6-19-25). He currently leads the league in points with 64 in 47 games, and he’s tied with Johnny Gaudreau for the league lead in primary assists. He’s the primary driver of the league’s most explosive offense.

Mikko Rantanen is one of my favorite players to watch in the league. Size, skill, creativity, wicked release, he has it all. He doesn’t come up much in the best player on earth (that’s not McDavid) discourse, but he certainly deserves to. I can’t think of many wingers I would rather have on my team than Rantanen. 

If the Sharks sneak into the playoffs (MoneyPuck gives them just an 11% chance to), it’ll be because of Timo Meier. While his point totals have cooled off over the past fortnight, he and line mate Tomas Hertl are the only reasons San Jose is staying afloat right now. His 13.2 Goals Above Replacement (GAR) is eighth-best in the league. He also ranks third in total offense GAR among all skaters. 

Johnny Gaudreau is having a great bounce back season in Calgary. He joins Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk on one of the most dominant forward lines in the game. In just under 500 minutes together, the trio has an expected goals rate of 63.9%, and an actual goals rate of 78% (via MoneyPuck). Gaudreau has the single highest impact on even strength goal differential in all of hockey. A dark horse candidate that could sneak into the top five should Calgary make a late season push for the division title. 

Norris Trophy

1. Cale Makar

2. Victor Hedman

3. Adam Fox

4. Aaron Ekblad

5. Charlie McAvoy

6. Roman Josi

7. John Carlson

8. Devon Toews

9. MacKenzie Weegar

10. Kris Letang

This year’s Norris race is incredibly interesting, and all ten of these guys could each lay their claim for the award. McAvoy, Fox, and Makar are the cream of the crop “new-age” defensemen. Incredibly smooth-skating, offensively productive, and more than responsible defensively. Makar is the most offensively gifted of the bunch, even if he’s playing on a loaded roster. Fox and McAvoy have better defensive numbers, but Makar is special on the other end of the ice. All three of them are excellent play drivers at even strength, who also quarterback three of the most lethal power-plays in the league. Get ready to see these three dominate Norris voting for years to come. 

The vets won’t be so eager to let the modern guard take over. Just ask Victor Hedman. Already a first-ballot Hall of Famer- Hedman and his Lightning show no desire to relinquish their throne soon. His defensive numbers took a hit last year, but he’s regressed back to his usual high standards on both ends of the ice this year. A month ago, he would’ve been the clear favorite, but a torrent month from Colorado has bridged the gap ever so slightly.

Florida’s top-pairing blue liners both warrant a spot in the top ten. Aaron Ekblad is finally looking like the bona fide number one they drafted him to be in 2014, while MacKenzie Weegar is finally getting the national recognition he deserves. In 715 minutes together, the duo has an expected goals share of 57.5% and actual goals share of 60% (via MoneyPuck). They complement each other well, with Weegar taking on the brunt of the defensive responsibility while Ekblad showcases his offensive prowess. If Florida continues to shred every opponent they face, both will get some recognition. 

Josi, Carlson, and Letang are having strong seasons on their respective bluelines. Carlson’s even strength defensive numbers look as good as ever, while Josi and Letang continue to be the excellent two-way players they’ve been for the last decade. All three are outside contenders to win, but they’ll certainly warrant some votes. 

Devon Toews is probably the least recognized name on the list, but his contributions to Colorado’s red-hot January cannot get overlooked. He may not be as flashy as others on this list, but his defensive contributions allow for the offensive ability of Makar to shine. 

Vezina Trophy

1. Igor Shesterkin

2. Juuse Saros

3. Frederik Andersen

4. John Gibson

5. Tristan Jarry

6. Jonathan Quick

7. Jack Campbell

8. Andrei Vasilevskiy

9. Ilya Sorokin

10. Sergei Bobrovsky

Now, this list could just be the top ten in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), but that’s no fun, is it? While GSAx is the best metric to evaluate goaltenders by, it’s not the end all be all. Wins matter, as does quality of the team in front of them. 

It’s the year of the Russian goaltender in the NHL. Shesterkin is the runaway favorite, Sergei Bobrovsky is having an impressive bounce-back season in Florida, Ilya Sorokin is doing his best to keep a lackluster Islanders team afloat, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best goaltender in the world until proven otherwise in the playoffs. 

Juuse Saros is Nashville’s MVP. He deserves a ton of credit for their expectation exceeding season. He’s one of my favorite goalies to watch because, while he’s not as tall as most starting goaltenders, he relies on his athleticism and quickness to make saves.

The pair of California goaltenders Gibson and Quick are keeping their teams afloat in the Pacific Division playoff race. Both are having resurgent seasons and are top ten in GSAx. 

Freddy Andersen plays on a well-oiled machine in Carolina, but his 22.05 GSAx trails only Shesterkin for the league lead. He also trails only Shesterkin in Wins Above Replacement (per MoneyPuck) with 3.73. 

Jack Campbell looked a surefire finalist a couple months ago, but his play has declined since then. He still ranks 13th in GSAx and 6th in Goals Saved Above Average, which is nothing to shrug off, but he’s not the lock for top three he once was.

After a disappointing first-round exit in last year’s playoffs, there was some doubt about Tristan Jarry’s future with the Penguins. Jarry has silenced those doubters this season, posting a 23-8-6 record through the first half. He was influential in the team’s strong start while mired by injuries to superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. 

Odds are, nobody catches Shesterkin. He’s taking the Rangers to the playoffs on his back while leading in nearly every significant goalie metric. It’ll take quite the second half for someone else to overtake him as the favorite. 

Selke Trophy

1. Patrice Bergeron 

2. Brad Marchand

3. Marcus Foligno

4. Matthew Tkachuk

5. Anthony Cirelli

6. Elias Lindholm

7. Joel Eriksson Ek

8. Roope Hintz

9. Troy Terry

10. Johnny Gaudreau

May as well just give it to Bergeron right now. The four-time Selke winner is still clearly the best defensive forward in the game. He leads all skaters in both xGA/60 and xGF%, with the next closest being his line mate Marchand. 

Calgary’s top line of Tkachuk, Lindholm, and Gaudreau is having an exceptional defensive season. They may be the best all-around forward line in the sport, thus warranting their place on this shortlist. 

Minnesota’s GREEF line deserves some recognition as well. They have yet to allow a single goal against when Foligno, Eriksson Ek, and Jordan Greenway are on the ice together. Foligno trails only Marchand and Bergeron in xGA/60, while Greenway and Eriksson Ek aren’t far behind. 

Cirelli, Hintz, and Terry are exceptional play drivers who probably won’t get the national recognition they deserve. 

Bergeron should win this unanimously. His defensive impact is so far ahead of every other player that it feels silly to even make a ten man shortlist for the Selke this year. 





Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Analysis: Joško Gvardiol to Manchester City

Image
After years of pursuit, Manchester City finally secured the coveted Champions League title. While the addition of the prolific Erling Haaland undoubtedly bolstered the squad, it was Pep Guardiola 's renewed emphasis on a fundamental aspect of football—defending—that truly propelled City to their long-awaited triumph. Guardiola, the architect of City’s legacy, pinpointed a critical flaw in his prior teams' defensive structure. The knockout stages of the Champions League demand a different level of resilience, one that his squads often lacked. While their beautiful style and attacking brilliance were undeniable, defensive vulnerabilities had cost them dearly on the grandest stages. However, a pivotal change occurred midway through last season. Guardiola recognized that to conquer European giants like Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, City required a defense that matched their attacking might. 🗣️ “I learned this season when you play against [Bukayo] Saka, Vinícius [Júnior], these t
Read more

Analyzing the Best Midfield Signings of the Premier League Transfer Window

Image
The 2023-24 transfer window is in full swing, and Premier League clubs are wasting no time flexing their financial muscles, outspending their continental counterparts by a significant margin. Last season, the Premier League shattered records by exceeding the €3 billion mark for the first time in history, outspending the next-highest spenders, Serie A, by over €2.5 billion. As the trend continues this year, the financial disparity between England and the rest of Europe remains striking, but it is not the primary focus of this post. That said, it did spark the inspiration for today's discussion. With Premier League clubs collectively burning through €1 billion within a month, one question looms large: what are they investing in, and who are they paying exorbitant fees for? The answer is clear: midfielders—quality midfielders, to be precise. All it takes is one glance at Transfermarkt’s top transfers page to understand: Premier League clubs are investing heavily in midfield overhauls
Read more

Austria: Euro 2024's Dark Horse

Image
  In late November, UEFA unveiled the group stage draw for the 17th edition of the European Championship, scheduled for the upcoming summer in Germany. Here are the groups: As the anticipation builds for the tournament, let's shift our focus away from the familiar teams like England, France, and Germany, and delve into a team that's flying under the radar but could make a substantial impact as a dark horse at Euro 2024: Austria. Now, you might be skeptical. How could Austria, a team with just 2 wins from 10 matches in previous European Championships, be considered a dark horse in Germany? Stranger things have happened in football history, such as Denmark winning the Euro 1992 tournament without even qualifying , or Greece claiming victory in Euro 2004 despite daunting +15000 odds (Austria currently sits at +6500 on Fanduel ). In this century alone, Turkey, Russia, Wales, and Czechia have all secured semi-final appearances. Who's to say the Austrians can't be the surpris
Read more