What would a 12-team College Football Playoff look like this season?

College Football has a problem, a playoff problem. The playoff committee released their first rankings of the season Tuesday night and exposed the flaws with the playoff system in doing so. 

The committee sent a message to undefeated Cincinnati and Oklahoma, placing them outside of the playoff picture as it stands.

It should come as no surprise that the Bearcats are ranked behind three one-loss teams. After all, no Group of Five teams has made the four-team playoff since its introduction in 2014. 

What the committee did to Oklahoma was arguably worse. Not only is Oklahoma, an undefeated Power Five team, outside of the playoff. They are outside the top six altogether. 

My issue with where Cincinnati and Oklahoma were ranked is that it sets the precedent that almost losing is worse than losing. That Alabama losing to Texas A&M is better than Oklahoma and Cincinnati beating every team in front of them. 

What this first set of rankings tells us is that four teams simply aren't enough. The committee needs an expanded field to further fine-tune the criteria.

With 12 teams, the committee can reward the P5 schools with strong schedules and conference championships while still giving other deserving teams a fair shot. 

This really is a no-brainer for the CFP, and I expect expansion sooner rather than later.  

With a quarter of the season yet to be played this is purely hypothetical. Nonetheless, it's an interesting exercise to see what the CFP could look like in a few years. 

12-team CFP format

• 6 conference champions auto-qualify, CFP committee selects 6 at-large teams
• Top 4 conference champions get a first-round bye
• The first and second rounds are hosted by the higher seed, neutral venue for semifinals on
• The committee is responsible for seeding

Round One Matchups: Who gets a bye? Who plays who?

#1 Georgia (SEC champ)

The Bulldogs are having a fantastic season thus far. The Georgia defense is one of the most dominant of all time, giving up less than 7 points per game. Georgia is almost guaranteed to be in the four-team playoff this year. They have four cupcake matchups left on the schedule before a likely showdown with Alabama in the SEC championship. Georgia could lose to Bama and still sneak in the fourth spot, as they'll likely get the benefit of the doubt from the committee. 

#2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

I have Ohio State winning the Big Ten in this hypothetical. This assumes they beat Michigan State, Michigan, and the B1G West champion, which is far from a guarantee. They've looked a completely different team since their home loss to Oregon in September. The defense has found some stability while the offense remains explosive. Wins over top ten teams in Michigan and Michigan State plus a B1G championship would be more than enough to secure the Buckeyes the #2 seed and a bye. 

#3 Oregon (Pac 12 champ)

Oregon was on the playoff radar the second they beat Ohio State in Columbus. I would put them above Ohio State if it weren't for an OT loss to Stanford, the lone blemish on their schedule. Tough matchups await in Washington and Utah, but the Ducks look content to ride that victory over Ohio State to the playoff. 

#4 Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)

Oklahoma fans probably feel hard done by Tuesday's rankings, and rightfully so. Decisive matchups remain with Baylor and Oklahoma State, as well as the Big 12 championship. If they lose to either of those teams, I would be comfortable swapping them for either team, but for now, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Sloppy wins over Texas and Kansas have given this team a new lease on life, and I'm expecting them to play their best football down the stretch. 

#5 Alabama (SEC at-large) vs. #12 Oklahoma State (Big 12 at-large)

Alabama is the highest-seeded at-large bid because, well, they're Alabama. The Tide have been in six of seven total playoffs, winning three of them. They have an ugly loss to Texas A&M that could keep them out of the normal playoff, but in this expanded playoff they are a guarantee. Should they beat both Auburn and Georgia to close out the year they swap spots with Georgia. 

It was between Oklahoma State and Baylor for the final at-large bid, and the Cowboys beat Baylor in early October. The last four weeks of Big 12 action will be telling, and don't be surprised if Baylor or Oklahoma State upsets Oklahoma and wins the conference. 

The winner of this would play at Oklahoma.

#6 Cincinnati (AAC champ) vs. #11 Texas A&M (SEC at-large) 

Cincinnati is having one of their best seasons ever and it still isn't enough to convince the CFP committee. The Bearcats have looked shaky the last few weeks, but still, have a clear path to an undefeated season with a win over another playoff team (Notre Dame). Cincinnati would be the first Group of Five teams to make the playoff and could be the team to break the stigma that they don't belong. 

It's been an up and down year for the Aggies, who started the season as a playoff contender before dropping back-to-back stinkers against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Naturally, they followed those up with a season-salvaging win against the Tide. They still have work to do against ranked opponents Auburn and Ole Miss the next two weeks, and still have the Alabama win as a resume booster. Either Auburn or Ole Miss could alternate as the pick, but I'll give the edge to A&M for now. 

The winner of this would play at Oregon.

#7 Michigan State (Big Ten at-large) vs. #10 Michigan (Big Ten at-large)

I mean... how cool of a playoff game would this be? The two teams just played perhaps the game of the season last Saturday, in which Michigan State completed an impressive second-half comeback to keep the Paul Bunyan Trophy in East Lansing. 

Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State may all mutually benefit from having to play each other, should the playoff expand. If each team has two or fewer losses by the end of the season, it's tough to make a case against any of the three. Michigan could lose to Ohio State and still be 10-2 with two quality losses. Michigan State could lose to Ohio State and still be 11-1 with a quality win and loss. Ohio State could lose to both schools and still have a solid at-large case with three quality wins. Hell, even all three teams could tie for a division championship, which would send Michigan State to Indy on a tiebreaker. 

The winner of this would play at... Ohio State. Wouldn't that be fun?

#8 Wake Forrest (ACC champ) vs. Notre Dame (Independent at-large) 

Wake Forrest is currently undefeated and ranked in the top ten for the first time in school history. They have yet to play Clemson and NC State, far from easy outs but are currently the frontrunners in the ACC Coastal race. The Demon Deacons can score, and they can score a lot. They've yet to score less than 30 points this season and have eclipsed the 40-point mark five times. Wake could very well go undefeated this year and still miss out on the CFP, which would never happen if they were named Clemson. This is exactly the double standard that led us to expansion in the first place. I'm not saying that Wake Forrest is a top-four team in the country, but they should at least be given the chance to prove themselves. 

Notre Dame is another school with a lot to gain from expansion. Their independent status and lack of conference championship games have withheld some good teams from reaching the playoffs. With a larger pool and less importance put on winning a conference, the Fighting Irish would be favorites to make the playoffs every year. This team did lose a close game against Cincinnati but that shouldn't hurt their chances all that much. 

The winner of this would play at Georgia. 

Other Playoff Contenders

Auburn- Technically the Tigers still control their own destiny in the SEC West. They'll have to beat A&M and Alabama, but it's certainly possible. The Tigers have won 3 of the last 4 Iron Bowls played at Jordan-Hare and they have a reputation of Iron Bowl upsets. 

Baylor- Baylor is tough because they already lost to Oklahoma State, so any tiebreaker would hypothetically go to the Cowboys. Baylor would have to win out with help from Oklahoma to find themselves in this discussion come December. 

BYU- Back-to-back losses to Boise State and Baylor stings (and ultimately keeps them out) but it's tough to not be impressed with this Cougars team. They have basically played a P5 schedule all year, and 10-2 would be a great season for them. However, I don't quite think their resume is impressive enough for this list.

Ole Miss- Lane Kiffin and his Rebels have a fun one this week, as 2022 NFL Draft eligible QBs Matt Corral and Malik Willis square off in Oxford this Saturday. Should Ole Miss beat both A&M and Mississippi State they would get an at-large bid in my book.