2022 U.S. Olympic hockey team roster projections
USA Hockey is still searching for its first gold medal since Lake Placid in 1980. They won silver in 2002 and 2010, but no team has reached the pinnacle since Herb Brooks' "Miracle on Ice" team did it almost 42 years ago. I get chills every single time I watch Miracle, and I'll be watching it before the puck drops in Beijing this coming February.
Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin is tasked with assembling what is essentially an NHL All-Star team. The USNTDP (and NCAA) has been churning out talented players for the last decade, and it has resulted in maybe the deepest pool of talent USA Hockey has ever had at its disposal. The expectations with this group will be medal or bust. It's a tough ask to dethrone the Canadians, but not medaling would be a failure with this much talent.
These projections are more who I think should make the roster rather than who I think Guerin will name to it. If I had to guess, the actual team includes a few more guys who've been to an Olympics or World Cup before.
Let's take a look at what the USA could look like in Beijing.
Disclaimer: Vegas center Jack Eichel is not included on this list due to uncertainty around his return from a herniated disc he suffered in March. Eichel is a top ten player in the world when healthy, and should he not be cleared to play before the tournament, his absence could spell trouble for the Americans.
Forwards
Auston Matthews and Patrick Kane headline a forward group loaded with young talent and reliable veterans with Olympic experience to fall back on. I really like the composition of this group, and there are several different directions Guerin can take this team. My team may be a little undersized, but give me speed and skill over size any day of the week.
Kane and Matthews have already been confirmed to be on the team. Alex Debrincat has formed a great partnership with Kane during their time together in Chicago. The Blackhawks are off to a dreadful start to the season, but the Kane and Debrincat line has been driving play well despite poor finishing. If those two can find some chemistry with last year's Richard Trophy winner Auston Matthews, it could make for a dynamic top line that would be one of the best in the tournament.
Speaking of keeping guys together from their NHL clubs, Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau are in the midst of a fantastic season with the Flames. Their line, centered by Swedens Elias Lindholm, has been the best forward line in hockey this year. In 220 minutes together, the trio has an expected goals share of 63.3%. They've also yet to concede a 5 on 5 goal while on the ice together. Tkachuk is playing his way to the top of Selke trophy discussions, and Gaudreau has found his form from the Flames dominant 2018-19 regular season. I threw Dylan Larkin on this line, another guy who's having a resurgent season with the young and exciting Red Wings. This line is speedy, defensively sound, physical, and can play in every situation. This could end up being the American's most effective forward line, in my opinion.
The bottom-six is where it gets a little messy, as there are ample quality options for Guerin and head coach Mike Sullivan. I have another NHL club pairing on the third line. Vancouver teammates J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser. Miller has been one of the lone bright spots on a Canucks team that hasn't had a whole lot go their way. Some of the duo's defensive struggles can be attributed to a truly awful blueline, which they won't have to worry about in Beijing. Boeser is really struggling. The underlying defensive numbers look alright, but he is really struggling to generate any high danger scoring chances so far. If his poor production continues, I would have no qualms about leaving him off the squad entirely. But for now, he's on my team. I paired the two Canucks with Jets sniper Kyle Connor, who's off to a red-hot start to the season with 12 goals and 10 assists through 18 games. Connor is a pure sniper with one of the best releases in hockey. He can play higher in the lineup if necessary. But for now, I have him in a third-line scoring role.
The fourth line and extras are interchangeable in my book. I put Pavelski in the lineup as a guy who's experienced and will take a defensive role on this team. I've paired him with Troy Terry, who is on an absolute tear this season. His 27.27% shooting percentage indicates that his already career-high point total isn't sustainable, but he is still driving play at an elite level. Not having Terry on my team despite being one of the league's best players this season would be criminal, and I sure hope he can sustain his overall play from the first month and a half of the season. I slotted Chris Kreider, the trusty two-way veteran from New York, in the final non-reserve spot in the team. Kreider is having a much-needed bounce year back after back-to-back sub-par seasons with the Rangers. Much like Pavelski, Kreider will be happy to take a more defensive role lower in the lineup.
The Hughes pick is probably a reach to make the team at this point. The former first-overall pick in the 2019 draft was underwhelming in his rookie season but looked like a much-improved player last season. A shoulder injury has sidelined him for a month, but he will have sufficient time to prove he belongs before February. Max Pacioretty is a scoring winger who can easily replace a top-six forward should it be necessary. The final winger on this list is Jake Guentzel. Guentzel, like the rest of his Penguins team, has had an up and down beginning of the season. Guentzel gets the nod from me because he was a piece of the back-to-back cup-winning Penguins and because of his familiarity with Guerin and Mike Sullivan.
Guerin has the near-impossible task of narrowing this group down to 16 forwards. Players that deserve or expect a call simply aren't gonna get one. The following are forwards that barely missed out on making my projected team but would be called in the case of injuries or decline in play.
Vincent Trocheck (C) Carolina Hurricanes
Trevor Zegras (C) Anaheim Ducks
TJ Oshie (RW) Washington Capitals
Cam Atkinson (RW) Philadelphia Flyers
Brady Tkachuk (LW) Ottawa Senators
Drake Batherson (RW) Ottawa Senators
Defensemen
This is the position group I'm most excited to see play together. You have maybe the two best 5 on 5 two-way defensemen right now in Fox and McAvoy. The pair of 23-year-olds have been outstanding the last two seasons, earning well-deserved, extremely lucrative contract extensions. Fox and McAvoy are the model new-age defensemen. They produce, have great defensive numbers, and their teams control the play with them on the ice. They could play together on the American's top pairing, but for balance, I paired them with two left-shot blueliners that I feel compliment them really well in Zach Werenski and Jaccob Slavin.
Werenski is an offensively gifted puck-mover who skates well and has improved his defensive game a ton since entering the league in 2016-17. He generates a ton of offense and is one of the best powerplay quarterbacks in the game. Werenski should make the team, but don't be surprised if he's passed on in favor of a more experienced blueliner.
Jaccob Slavin is the league's premier shut-down defenseman. Last year's Lady Byng winner brings a much-needed defensive balance to a blueline loaded with undersized puck-movers. That's not to say the others are poor defensively because they aren't. Slavin brings a defense-first mentality, one that will be needed in the deeper stages of the tournament.
Quinn Hughes seemingly took a step back last year after a breakout 2019-20 campaign. He's off to a much better start this year despite the Canucks rough season. His 20.5% relative expected goals rate makes him the only Canuck with a positive in the statistic. The next closest is -0.8. Hughes is a lot like Fox and McAvoy in that he's slightly undersized, a great skater, and has insane possession numbers. For now, I have him paired with Seth Jones.
I have to be honest here in my assessment of Jones. I just don't think he's one of the eight best American defenders. Alas, Jones is already confirmed to be on the team by USA Hockey. Jones can produce on the powerplay and plays a lot of minutes, but he bleeds chances and does not drive play well at all. I don't think it's the worst thing in the world to have Jones on the team, but he should not be playing over some of the other names in this team.
John Carlson and Torey Krug round out my eight defensemen I would take to Beijing. Both continue the theme with this team of having great possession numbers and production. I believe that offense is the best defense, especially in the Olympics, where you must rely on skill rather than a system. Take the players that dominate possession and create more big chances than they let up.
Here are some players who just missed the cut.
Jeff Petry- Montreal Canadiens
Jacob Trouba- New York Rangers
Brett Pesce- Carolina Hurricanes
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